Bear market ahead? 50% correction is a good way to move cryptos to new all-time highs (XLM, ADA, ETH, VET, and LTC)
I know. Everyone wants the moon. Everyone wants to know when Lambo. Everyone wants to know when we’ll see another 2013 or 2017. Neither of those types of scenarios is going to play out unless there’s a bigger drop than what we experienced on Tuesday (September 9th, 2021). When I say a 50% correction is likely, I don’t mean a 50% correction from the all-time highs – I mean a 50% retracement from the most recent swing highs. Let’s look at what that scenario would look like for some major crpytocurrencies.
A 50% drop from the most recent major swing high ($0.439) would bring Stellar down to the prior swing low rejoin for 2021. This would mean a return to $0.22. $0.22 is a value area that would likely hold as a primary support zone as it’s the upper range of the high volume node that makes up the 2021 VPOC (Volume Point-Of-Control) at $0.17.
Cardano would have a fairly brutal drop compared to many of its peers when comes to a 50% retracement. The 50% retracement would be from the new all-time of $3.16 and point to a retrace down to $1.57. It’s very likely that traders would push it lower towards the second highest volume node for 2021 at $1.30.
While it may seem a little unlikely, Ethereum’s 50% retracement from its most recent major swing high would bring it down to $1,993. That is slightly above the 2021 VPOC at $1,795. The weeks of May 17th, June 21st, and July 21st all saw periods where bears pushed Ethereum to the $2,000 value area and it held. The difficult level for bears to cross will be the weekly Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen which share a similar value area near $2, 910.
VeChain has a (very sloppy) head-and-shoulders pattern forming on its weekly chart. If any bulls were looking for a bearish fake out or bear trap, then VeChain’s chart might provide that scenario. A 50% retracement from the most recent important swing high at $0.807 would bring price down to $0.418. Depending on how you draw the head-and-shoulder pattern, the 50% retracement is slightly below the neckline or right on top of it. Either way, it would be a nice area to speculate for a long and trap some bears who anticipate a clear breakdown below the neckline.
Litecoin may not experience a move as far south as 50%. The most recent major swing high is at $232, but a 50% drop from that level would bring Litecoin perilously close to creating new 2021 lows. It is very likely that support will be found at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement and final high volume node at $127. I would look at this scenario as an ideal one because it would form the beginning of a right shoulder on an inverse head and shoulder pattern.